AS经济data sample answer: Unemployment in India

之前我们讲了data的答法：新考纲下AS经济data答题指南今天我们用一份真题，和大家一起过一下详细的答案。 特别提醒：经济大题答题方法很多，本文的思路及答案仅供参考。

9708/21/M/J/23：Unemployment in India

(a) Using the data in Fig. 1.1, calculate the change in India’s unemployment rate between July 2020 and May 2021. [2]

计算题的答题格式非常固定：从文中找出数据，计算，写答句。In July 2020, unemployment rate was 7.4%; in May 2021, unemployment was 11.9%. 11.9 - 7.4=4.5.Unemployment rate rose by 4.5% over this period.

(b) Using the information provided, explain how agriculture caused seasonal unemployment in India in December 2020. [2]

先解释为什么agricultural会导致seasonal unemployment，然后用文章的信息去回答。

In India, December is not the month in which farming can absorb labor. This is because December is not a suitable month for the growth of agricultural products so that it needs fewer workers.According to the article, while the labor force increased by 6 million, job losses in agriculture amounted to 9.8 million. This resulted in seasonal unemployment in India in December 2020.

(c) Consider the extent to which difficulties may arise in the measurement of unemployment in India. [4]

AO2: 写至少2个difficulties of measurement. 由于后面需要讨论这些问题是否在印度存在，因此这里我会提到农民，为后面evaluation做好铺垫。

Claimant count measures unemployment according to the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. However, this may underestimate the level of unemployment. Discouraged workers are nonworking people who are capable of working but have given up looking for a job given the state of the job market. Underemployment is the number of people who work part time because they cannot find full-time jobs. Both discouraged workers and underemployed workers are excluded in the measurement of unemployment.Meanwhile, it is possible that the claimant count could overstate the level of unemployment. Some workers in India may be registered as unemployed but are, in fact, employed. One example is those working in the illegal economy, which is not authorized by law, such as the illegal drug trade. Some individuals may engage in the underground economy, meaning they are paid in cash to avoid tax payments.It is also difficult to measure level of unemployment in rural areas. Rural areas often rely heavily on agriculture, which is highly seasonal. Many rural workers lack formal employment contracts, making it challenging to track their employment status accurately.

AO3: Consider 这类difficulties到底存不存在。结合印度的背景，给出一个Justified conclusion.

In India, the difficulties of measuring unemployment are very significant, for two main reasons. Firstly, India has a sizable informal economy where many economic activities are not officially documented or taxed. Therefore, a large number of workers who are actually employed may be counted as unemployed. Secondly, agriculture is the largest employer in India. The dependence on agriculture in rural areas leads to fluctuations in employment levels, resulting in an unreliable measure of rural unemployment.

(d) Assess whether seasonal unemployment is likely to be a more serious problem than frictional unemployment for India’s economy. [6]

AO2：先写seasonal unemployment对印度经济的问题。结合文章，这里应该提到的是农民收入下降的影响。

In India, farmers often experience seasonal unemployment in December. When farmers become unemployed, they have less disposable income to spend on goods and services, which can reduce overall consumer spending and economic growth. Those who rely on seasonal employment may struggle to meet their basic needs during periods of unemployment. Therefore, governments may need to provide social welfare support, such as unemployment benefits or food assistance. This can place a burden on public finances. Finally, seasonal unemployment may lead to rural-to-urban migration as farmers seek more stable job opportunities in cities. If farmers cannot find enough labor during harvesting seasons, this will lead to reduced crop yields and disruptions in food supply.

AO2：再写frictional unemployment对印度经济的问题。结合文章，这里应该提到geographical immobility和imperfect information的影响。

Meanwhile, frictional unemployment is caused by geographical immobility and imperfect information. Concerning geographical immobility, the article states that many workers are reluctant to relocate to take jobs. In this case, they may become trapped in regions with limited job opportunities if there is reduced economic activity in those areas. Those people are likely to find it more difficult to get another job the longer they have been out of work. This is because they will miss out on training, will become out of touch with advances in technology and may lose confidence. Regarding imperfect information, the article states that many people are unaware of job vacancies. In such cases, the economy experiences an opportunity cost: if the unemployed were still working, more goods and services would be produced, and living standards would be higher. Tax revenue received by the government will be lower than with a higher level of employment. If the government provides state benefits, there will be an increase in government spending on benefits, which could have been allocated to other purposes.

AO3：基于之前的analysis，结合印度的情况，讨论哪种类型的失业问题更严重，并给出结论。

According to the article, although the unemployment rate rose from 6.5% to 9.1% in December 2020, it fell back to 6.5% in January 2021. Workers in agricultural regions are aware of these patterns and can plan their activities accordingly, which will not cause a severe impact on the economy. By contrast, frictional unemployment can persist throughout the year. The mismatch between job seekers and available opportunities can result in longer spells of unemployment, leading to income loss, reduced living standards, and increased government debt.In conclusion, seasonal unemployment is less of a concern because it is more predictable and of shorter duration. Frictional unemployment is a more serious problem, as it is likely to have more lasting and widespread effects on the economy.

(e) Assess the possible measures that could be taken to increase employment in a country such as India. [6]

这里可以根据印度经济不同的失业种类，讨论不同的policy的有效性。需要注意的是，每一个Policy，大家都要均衡的写出他为什么可以/不可以解决失业的问题。这些都属于analysis.

AO2：讨论如何解决 Cyclical unemployment.

Government could use expansionary fiscal policy to increase employment. For instance, When the government increases spending on various projects, real GDP rises because government spending is a direct component of it. In terms of tax reduction, government could reduce income tax so that consumers have more disposable income to consume. Government could also reduce the level of corporation tax so that business has more retained profits to invest. If AD increases, real GDP will rise, cyclical unemployment could be reduced.However, large tax cuts and increases in government spending can strain public finances, potentially leading to budget deficits and higher debt levels. This can result in long-term fiscal challenges and harms long-term growth rate. Additionally, government spending on infrastructure may disproportionately benefit certain sectors and regions. If jobs are primarily created in those sectors, workers in other areas may still face a lack of job opportunities.

AO2：讨论如何解决 Seasonal unemloyment.

To increase the level of employment in December, supply-side policies could be implemented to reduce seasonal unemployment. The government could implement training programs to enhance the skills of farmers. When workers become more productive, they may move to secondary or tertiary sectors, reducing the level of seasonal unemployment during off-seasons. However, providing more education and training may not be very effective if it is not of high quality or if it develops skills that will not be in demand in the longer term.

AO2：讨论如何解决 Frictional unemployment.

The government may use supply-side policies to reduce frictional unemployment caused by geographical immobility. For instance, if the government provides more transport infrastructure, such as a high-speed railway, travel time could be decreased so that workers are more willing to take jobs in other cities. However, infrastructure development can be expensive and can take considerable time to construct; it may take several years to build a new rail link.

AO3: 基于之前的anlaysis, evaluate政府应该用哪些policies.

Between March 2021 and May 2021, the unemployment rate increased from 6.5% to 11.9%. This indicates a weak economy, making fiscal policy more effective in increasing employment in the short term since it has a direct impact on the economy. In contrast, from July 2020 to May 2021, the unemployment rate consistently remained above 6.5%. If the government wishes to reduce long-term unemployment levels, it may consider using supply-side policies.It's also important to note that unemployment rates and job availability can vary from one area to another within the same country. Urban areas may experience cyclical unemployment due to a decline in economic activity, while rural areas may encounter seasonal unemployment caused by variations in weather conditions. If the government is focusing on addressing unemployment in rural areas, then supply-side policies could be a more suitable measure.

答Data的核心，还是结构正确，详细解释，以及结合文章内容。大家可能会觉得考试的时候Assess的题要写高分难度很大。

第一个Assess的题难度较低，争取拿下4分analysis以及1分evaluation；第二个assess的题，结构正确，尽量把两个正反面写全，争取多拿一些analysis的分数。如果前面8分能拿下6分以上，那整个data也能得到一个不错的分数。

以上就是今天data的sample, 明天我们会带来sample essay。祝大家备考顺利~