AP 2024 北美宏观 FRQ 解析

考情分析

两张试卷结构和考察内容都类似，本次SHA考生遇到的试卷是set 2。简答题题的难度中规中矩。第一题都是关于宏观政策和自我调节的。这次与2023年一样考察了充分准备金制度的考点，与2023不同的是这次还要求画准备金市场的图形。

这道题是新题，但是考前的押题已经包括这道题目了。第二题是GDP和通胀率的计算题，难度不高。第三题是汇率题。其中set 1考察利率对于汇率的影响，比较常规；set 2考察产出和收入对于净出口的影响，不那么常规，略微难一些。

Set1

Set 1, question 1

Answer

(a).actual unemployment rate = cyclical unemployment rate + natural unemploymentnatural unemployment = frictional unemployment + structural unemploymentstructural unemployment = 8% - 4% - 3% = 1%natural rate of unemployment = 4% + 1% = 5%

(b).

(c).(i). Wages and prices will decrease, shifting the SRAS to the right. When the equilibrium reaches LRAS, the economy is adjusted to full employment.(ii).

(d).Decrease interest on reserve. (or decrease administered interest rate)(e).

Or for decrease administered interest rate

(f).(i). Price of bonds increase.(ii). Price level Increase.Low interest rate increase investment and consumption, AD shifts rightward. The new equilibrium has a higher price level and a higher output.

Set 1, question 2

Answer

(a).real GDP = ( nominal GDP / GDP deflator ) × 100 = ( 1035000 / 115 ) × 100 = 900000

(b).Real GDP interest increase, demand of money increase and nominal interest rate increase.

(c).Decrease, because real GDP per capita that reflect living standard decreased.real GDP per capita (year 1) = 800000 / 1000 = 800real GDP per capita (year 2) = 900000 / 1200 = 750

(d).Nominal inflation rate is 15%Inflation rate = 115 / 100 -1 = 15%

(e).Real wages decrease, because the price level increase (by 15%) faster than nominal wages (by 10%).

Set 1, question 3

Answer(a).Increase government spending (or tax cut).(b).Real interest rate increase.When government increase its spending, it must borrow money. This increases the demand of loanable funds, and eventually increase the real interest rate.(c).MYR (ringgit) appreciates.

(d).Imports increase.MYR appreciates, makes impots goods relatively cheaper compare to domestic goods, this leads to more imports.

Set 2

Set 2, question 1

Answer(a).

(b).(i).ΔC = 110000 - 100000 = 10000 ΔY = 135000 – 110000 = 25000 MPC = ΔC / ΔY = 0.4(ii).

(c).Wages and prices will decrease, shifting the SRAS to the right. When the equilibrium reaches LRAS, the economy is adjusted to full employment.

(d).Decrease interest on reserve. (or decrease administered interest rate)

(e).

Or for decrease administered interest rate

(f).

(i). Quantity of national saving increases.

(ii). Unemployment rate decreases.

Interest rate decrease leads to increase in consumption and investment, AD shift rightward and output increase. More output needs more workers, so the unemployment rate decreases.

Set 2, question 2

Answer

(a).nominal GDP = 13 × 10 + 4 × 20 = 210

(b).nominal GDP = 210

real GDP = 10 × 10 + 5 × 20 = 200

GDP deflator = ( nominal GDP / real GDP ) × 100 = ( 210 / 200 ) × 100 = 105

(c).5%(Price index from 100 to 105)

(d).

(i) Fixed income earner worse off (unexpected inflation).

(ii) Borrowers better off.

Equation r = I – inflation rate. The nominal interest rate of a loan is fixed, and the inflation is higher than expected, so that the real interest rate is lower than expected.

Set 2, question 3

Answer

(a).Increase government spending (or tax cut).

(b).Net export decrease.

If the government increases its spending, the real output increases, disposable income increases and consumption increases. When consumption increases, people buy more import goods as well, thus decreases net export.

(c).JMD depreciates.

(d). CFA surplus.

A decrease in net exports means there is a current account (CA) deficit. And CA + CFA = 0, so if CA is in deficit, CFA must be in surplus.